According to the banking association, Germans will be buying fewer consumer goods due to the crisis. The good news is that they want to take out more loans for these purchases.
According to association managing director Peter Wacket, German retailers are "now dependent on financing offers in order to continue selling goods". Credit banks could keep the economy going.
"However, customers react particularly sensitively in uncertain times," believes afb board member Jan Ph. Wieners: "Those who cannot quickly adapt business processes and products to the respective needs using appropriate IT will lose customer confidence."
Used cars will soon be more in demand than new vehicles. Furniture and kitchens are also in decline, but are being financed more frequently than before. And borrowers are getting younger, which banks will also have to take into account when addressing customers (with the help of technology) in the future.
Europe weak, emerging markets booming
Overall, German business is still doing well compared to the rest of Europe. The market for consumer loans in Europe declined for the second year in a row in 2011. It only grew in seven EU countries, including Germany with an increase of 0.7 percent. In contrast, the global picture is dynamic: the market grew by 4.5% to EUR 5,600 billion by the end of 2011. It owes this in particular to the emerging markets, because even beyond Europe's borders, the industrialized countries are growing only slowly or are even in decline. In 2008, the five largest individual markets still accounted for 76 percent of the global loan portfolio, whereas in 2011, according to CreditPlus Bank, they only accounted for 60 percent. The dynamism of the emerging markets, on the other hand, appears unbroken.
South America in particular saw strong growth of 21% in 2011, with Argentina (+49%), Brazil (+20%) and Chile (+18%) leading the way. In Asia, China (+28%) and Indonesia (+25%) are currently booming. Even Africa recorded solid growth of 13%. However, the per capita volume of individual loans is significantly lower than in saturated markets. In North America, for example, it is EUR 4,800, in the 27 EU member states EUR 2,100 and in Africa EUR 90. However, the potential of the emerging markets will grow and it stands to reason that credit banks will therefore become increasingly globally oriented. China, for example, is currently becoming a goldmine for car manufacturers in the premium segment - and therefore also for their manufacturing banks. Financing there is still in the single-digit range, whereas every second vehicle worldwide is already being financed.
Banks are looking beyond Europe
Many automotive and credit banks are internationalizing their business processes, including supporting IT, not least because of the enormous potential of emerging markets, after having scaled back their activities during the international economic and financial crisis. International software solutions such as the afb Credit Management Solution (afb CMS) form the group-wide bracket and at the same time reflect national characteristics. For example, large manufacturer banks may operate in China, but only offer installment purchases and/or loan financing there, and only if the customer can pay a relatively high percentage of the vehicle value. The balancing act is certainly more difficult in heavily regulated or still rapidly changing countries such as China than in the old markets: On the one hand, they require many regional adjustments to processes and IT, and on the other, greater central control, as the business risk is also comparatively high.
